- - Matthew Stafford or Drake Maye for NFL MVP? And who wins the 4-man (or 5-man) Coach of the Year duel?

Charles RobinsonDecember 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM

0

Five months ago, these were the types of races that Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay was preparing for.

A race for the NFC West crown. A race for the No. 1 overall playoff seed in the NFC. A race for another Super Bowl appearance. And the foundation of it all: an effort to get every last ounce of elite football out of his quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who McVay believed still had an MVP-level performance residing inside him.

Back in late July, it felt like a shaky proclamation. Training camp was unfolding without Stafford, who was sidelined with unexpected back pain, triggering some early fanbase consternation that the 2025 season was going sideways before it even started. But McVay shrugged and brushed it off in a meeting with Yahoo Sports, framing a much bigger picture.

“It’s about what’s going to be best for us later in the season. Right now, for Matthew, being out there isn’t what we’re concerned with,” McVay told Yahoo Sports in July. “I’m thinking of December and January and hopefully if we do this right, February. If we can take care of him now — s*** man, we can roll with Jimmy [Garoppolo], who I think is still a starter in this league, for as long as we have to if it means having Matthew where we want him late in the season. What’s important is for him and us, is to be healthy and hopefully going into the postseason ready to start peaking.”

[Get more Rams news: Los Angeles team feed]

Asked to project how much elite-level football Stafford had left in the tank at 37 years old, McVay smiled.

“He’s still got it all,” McVay said. “Draft Davante [Adams] and Puka [Nacua] on your fantasy football team.”

It turned out to be a prophetic declaration, with Stafford not only putting together a healthy campaign, but also on the cusp of posting arguably the greatest regular season performance of his NFL career. With two games left and the Rams still in the race for the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed, Stafford’s league-leading 40 touchdown passes are one shy of his career high, alongside a 112.1 passer rating that also leads the NFL and would smash his previous ceiling of 106. The underpinnings of that achievement include holding the current NFL lead in passing yardage (4,179) and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.61), while throwing only five interceptions in 519 pass attempts.

In a word, he’s been exquisite — delivering the kind of season that should eventually help punch his Hall of Fame ticket. In two weeks, the question for panel voters will be whether it’s good enough to lock down the first league MVP of Stafford’s career.

With that in mind, here’s an overview of how the MVP field stacks up with two games left in the season — and a bonus look at what is stacking up as one of the most hotly debated NFL Coach of the Year races.

NFL MVP raceMatthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Stafford has all the aforementioned statistical edges, but he’s also got six wins over teams that have either qualified for the postseason (the Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers) or are still in the thick of playoff races (the Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans). His toughness and leadership traits have reached platinum-level status across the league when you talk to players, coaches and executives. There aren’t many quarterbacks in the league that McVay can’t bully with his expectations as a play caller, but Stafford is considered one of the few. Even in last week’s overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Stafford played at the kind of level that left his MVP candidacy clean in defeat.

It will be interesting to see if Stafford is penalized by some voters for having more elite-level talent surrounding him on the Rams than some of his peers he’s fighting for MVP honors. Interestingly, even in the Rams’ four losses, Stafford played reasonably well in three of the defeats, with his one outlier being a loss to the Carolina Panthers that saw him throw two of his five interceptions.

One twist in Stafford’s reach for a league MVP? The Rams are currently residing in third place in the NFC West, with two games remaining against the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals. In NFL history dating back to 1957, only one player has ever captured a league MVP with his team finishing in third place in the division: the Detroit Lions’ Barry Sanders in 1997. It’s extremely rare for league MVPs to fail to win their own division, and unheard of for quarterbacks to capture the award from third place. In fact, only two quarterbacks in MVP history have failed to win their division in the season they captured the honors — with the Indianapolis Colts’ Peyton Manning (in 2008) and the Tennessee Titans’ Steve McNair (in 2003) both finishing second.

The one thing Stafford has going for him that Manning and McNair didn’t? The NFC West is qualifying three teams for the playoffs and is generally accepted as the toughest division in the NFL this season.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Maye stacks up as an excellent candidate, but the heat for him winning an MVP showcases how warped the week-to-week measuring stick can be when it comes to betting odds.

Two weeks ago, the odds were lamenting Maye and the Patriots suffering an ugly collapse against the Buffalo Bills after leading that game 21-0. Now this past week, Maye notched his first 300-yard passing game and his first fourth-quarter comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens, and oddsmakers suddenly felt settled in throwing out an oddly wide gap between Maye and the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen. Thankfully, MVP voters aren’t casting their ballots every single week the way odds makers are pushing wild betting swings.

All of that said, Maye has been superb in only his second season, logging 29 total touchdowns (25 passing and four rushing) while being a remarkable deep-ball passer and holding down a league-leading (and absurd) completion percentage of 70.9 percent in an offensive scheme that isn’t just a dink-and-dunk factory.

[Get more Patriots news: New England team feed]

Maye has also done all of this with a surrounding cast that was a significant question mark heading into the season, filled with rookies or inexperienced players filling key roles and a No. 1 wideout in Stefon Diggs who has showcased a penchant for cannibalizing his quarterbacks when he’s not happy with his usage. Not to mention a new head coach in Mike Vrabel and a new offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels who expect a lot from their starting quarterbacks.

In the face of that, Maye has helped raise all boats over the course of the season, while showcasing remarkable pocket awareness and movement over the course of the season. The Patriots’ soft schedule will surely be something that gets factored into the final analysis, but there’s an overwhelming amount of positives on Maye’s MVP résumé — and still two weeks left to stake his claim with the AFC’s top seed in the balance.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

The reigning NFL MVP has 37 total touchdowns (25 passing and 12 rushing) and has once again shouldered a massive offensive load for the Bills — even with running back James Cook leading the league in rushing after 15 games. While some are squarely putting Maye ahead of Allen at this stage of the MVP race, there’s a strong argument that it’s a dead heat between the two when it comes to the next tier below Stafford.

Frankly, both Allen and Maye lag behind Stafford in quality wins, and both have put up a few more mediocre games this season in terms of individual performances. Right now, Allen is falling in sportsbook odds in the MVP race because he’s coming off a win over the Cleveland Browns that was one of his more toothless games.

[Get more Bills news: Buffalo team feed]

Unfortunately, that’s the trouble with betting odds on MVP, which swing heavily on recency bias and don’t take into account the MVP voters who prefer to look at entire balance of work rather than just voting with their last best impression of a player. Depending on how the last two weeks shake out, Allen can still help or hurt himself when it comes to the final tally. Especially with the No. 1 seed in the AFC still hanging in the balance and matchup with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

MVP remaining field

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has emerged in the remaining field of contenders, and it is showing in betting odds in many sportsbooks that now have him inside the top four MVP contenders. In his last four games, Lawrence has looked like the generational quarterback that many believed he could be when the Jaguars made him the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Statistically, this will end up being the best season of Lawrence’s career as he heads into the final two weeks with 33 total touchdowns (26 passing and seven rushing). He also has a stack of quality wins over the course of the season.

But all of that said, Lawrence only recently began to consistently touch his ceiling on the field — and two of the games in his impressive four pack over the last month have come at the hands of the bottom-dwelling New York Jets and Tennessee Titans. The season isn’t over yet, so Lawrence can still make his case, but right now this late surge feels like he’s launching a campaign to be a 2026 NFL MVP frontrunner more than the guy who will walk away with the hardware after this season.

NFL Coach of the Year race

Aside from the MVP — and perhaps even surpassing the MVP conversation — this season’s Coach of The Year ballots are going to be very interesting. There’s a field of four head coaches (maybe even five) that I think could win the award this year. Here’s what that field looks like with two weeks remaining.

Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars

In his first season, Coen has transformed the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense into a balanced and complementary unit that can hurt teams with the run and pass. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has also seemingly turned a significant corner in Coen’s scheme — particularly in his last four games, with the capper being Sunday’s symphonic road win over the Denver Broncos. Coming off a 4-13 season in 2024, the Jaguars are in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, have multiple wins over teams that will be in the playoffs, and have a superb coaching staff. Coen has checked more than enough boxes to give anyone a run for COY honors.

Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears

Like Coen, Johnson has also transformed the Chicago Bears offense into a more balanced team, while stubbornly bringing along the development of quarterback Caleb Williams. Also like Coen, he’s doing it in his first season. But Johnson has remarkably vaulted from a 5-12 basement to the top of a savage NFC North in the process, putting the Bears in contention for the NFC’s No. 1 seed along the way. Chicago’s matchup on Sunday against the 49ers and fellow COY candidate Kyle Shanahan — two of the league’s elite offensive minds — is going to be very interesting, and will certainly be part of the parsing process between the two.

Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks

There was a reason why the Los Angeles Rams’ Sean McVay and San Francisco 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan were not thrilled when Macdonald landed in their division in 2024, and we’re seeing it now. Macdonald has transformed Seattle into one of the most balanced teams in the NFL offensively and defensively, integrated quarterback Sam Darnold into the mix, moved on successfully from DK Metcalf and rebooted a running game that is once again capable of getting the Seahawks through tough defensive battles. The one thing that will hurt Macdonald is that he’s coming off a 10-7 season in 2024 and didn’t start a reboot process this season to get where he is. There was some expectation of success this season, much like there was for Sean Payton in Denver and McVay in Los Angeles.

Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

No coach has produced more in the face of roster adversity than Shanahan this season. Not only did the 49ers sustain a wave of veteran experience and leadership departing in the offseason, but San Francisco has juggled its way through injuries in virtually every area of the depth chart this season. That includes a long spate without starting quarterback Brock Purdy — in which backup Mac Jones performed in a manner that could revive his starting career — as well losing defensive end Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner for the season. Not to mention the mess with wideout Brandon Aiyuk, which Shanahan somehow kept from becoming a huge distraction all season long. Shanahan carving this season out through the injuries and inside a monumentally tough NFC West may be the best coaching job of his career.

Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots

Vrabel took over a 4-13 Patriots team that finished last and transformed it in his first year back with the franchise, putting New England in play for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The turnaround has come with a roster that has had relatively thin depth and flat expectations, but has come together quickly defensively under Vrabel’s leadership. He also deserves a tip of the cap for turning the offense over to coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has brought along quarterback Drake Maye faster than anyone anticipated in his second season. While some will ding Vrabel for mounting the turnaround on a fairly weak schedule, it’s worth noting that he’s done it without some of the offensive wealth afforded some of the other COY candidates. He was also influential on both the free agency and draft classes, which have produced at a fairly high level on the field.

Coach of the Year remaining field

As I alluded to before, the Broncos’ Sean Payton and Rams’ Sean McVay are going to get some consideration. The Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh and Texans’ DeMeco Ryans could land some votes, too. The problem with all of these names — and arguably even Macdonald — is that they are building on past success in 2024, or have established veteran quarterback continuity, amongst other factors.

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Sports”